The NRL’s broadcasters would be licking their lips over the schedule of the final four rounds of the regular season as it is littered with blockbusters, all of which are set to have massive top eight implications.

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It starts this weekend, with three games featuring top eight sides facing off, including the grand final rematch between Penrith and Melbourne.

We’ve listed the 12 games we think will prove most important to how the top eight shapes up at season’s end.

As the finals race is an ever-changing landscape, we’ll update this list each week with expert analysis and information on top eight implications.

ROUND 24

PANTHERS VS STORM (Thursday 7:50pm, CommBank Stadium, Sydney)

Grand final rematch to kick off an excellent round of footy. For the first time this season, the Storm won’t be betting favourites. The Storm still have the minor premiership in their sights, with the Fox Sports Lab believing they should be favourites to end the season on top. After sitting last in May, Penrith have reeled off nine straight wins. They can’t finish any higher than third. It’s the second time the teams will face off this season following Melbourne’s entertaining 30-24 win back in Round 3. “We’re going to get a great barometer on where they are on premiership claims. We could be seeing this year’s grand final,” The Daily Telegraph’s Dave Riccio said on NRL360.

Who has the edge: Panthers. Hard to fault them at the moment and even though they’re missing Isaah Yeo, the Storm are without key spine members Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen. Fox League’s Dan Ginnane noted on NRL360 that it could be the Panthers with greater incentive to win this one. ”Melbourne want to win, Penrith need to win. Penrith don’t want to let the top four go,” Ginnane said. “Melbourne if they lose, it’s OK because they then play the Bulldogs the week after. That’s the big one for them because if they win that, that’ll get them in the top two.”

Finals implications: The Panthers can’t finish the round any higher than 4th, even with a win. A loss and a Warriors win against the Dragons on Friday would see Penrith drop back to 5th. Melbourne would move to 2nd with a win and drop to 3rd with a loss and a Bulldogs win.

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ROOSTERS VS BULLDOGS (Friday 8pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney)

This clash will give two big finals contenders a true barometer of where they sit. For the Bulldogs, they face a team in terrific touch that could slot into the last positions in the top eight, while the Roosters get their chance against a genuine top four team. The Roosters’ are 1-3 this season against the current top four sides but have clearly measured up in all of those as the three losses have been by a combined margin of just 10 points. It was the Bulldogs winning a thriller when the two sides met back in Round 11.

Who has the edge: Bulldogs. They’ve hit their straps in attack of late and look more well-rounded a football team with Lachlan Galvin and Bailey Hayward replacing Toby Sexton and Reed Mahoney in the starting line up.

Finals implications: A win could see the Bulldogs end the round as high as second. The Roosters’ top eight hopes will take a hit with a loss and a win could lift them to as high as 6th.

BRONCOS VS DOLPHINS (Saturday 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane)

Two teams with their backs against the wall at the moment. Dolphins were cruising a month ago but they’ve lost two from four, including an embarrassing loss to the Roosters last week. Meanwhile, the Broncos lost their two playmakers to hamstring injuries within a minute against the Storm. These two sides met in Round 4, and it was the Broncos saluting. In fact, Brisbane have won four of five editions of the Battle of Brisbane. The Broncos probably need to win at least two of their final four to assure a top eight spot while the Dolphins can only drop one more game.

Who has the edge: Broncos. Only narrowly, but even without Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam, the Broncos should have too much firepower against the Herbie Farnworth-less Dolphins.

Finals implications: With a win, the Broncos could end the round as high as 5th but a loss could see them drop out of the eight. Dolphins can only go as high as 6th this round but a defeat and a Roosters win against the Dogs would mean Kristian’s Woolf’s men fall to 9th.

TIGERS VS SEA EAGLES

Might not be as high profile as the three games above, but it’s a season defining game for both of these teams. More so the Sea Eagles, who are still somewhat of a realistic chance of making the eight. Given their average for and against, Manly might have to win all four games, starting with the Tigers, who have nothing to lose. Remarkably, the Tigers still haven’t been mathematically eliminated from a top eight spot, but a loss on Sunday will change that.

Who has the edge: Sea Eagles. A game they simply have to win. There were good signs against Canberra but they let that game get away from them in the second half. The Tigers will be out to play spoiler, but if Manly plays like they did in the first half last week, they’ll be too good for their opposition.

Finals implications: With a win or loss, Manly likely finish the round in 10th position unless they thrash the Tigers by 50-60+ points.

ROUND 25

PANTHERS VS RAIDERS (Friday 6pm, Glen Willow Stadium, Mudgee)

What a Friday night double-header this will be! There’s a good chance these two games will end up being the two qualifying finals. The country NSW town of Mudgee are being treated to a late season blockbuster as this clash promises to be one of the games of 2025. Right now, there aren’t two hotter teams as since Round 11, Penrith and Canberra are a combined 19 from 21. This will be the first meeting between these two sides this season.

STORM VS BULLDOGS (Friday 8pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne)

If the Raiders crumble over the final month, this could end up being the game that decided the minor premiership. In any case, the winner of this game will be tipped to finish the season inside the all important top two. With these two sides comfortably in the top three at the moment, it could be a dress rehearsal for a qualifying final clash.

SEA EAGLES VS DOLPHINS (Saturday 3pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney)

This game will lose a little bit of it’s lustre if Manly lose to the Tigers this weekend as that will essentially eliminate them from the hunt. If they win, this could very well turn out to be a game which lifts either side into the top eight at the end of Round 25. What adds to the intrigue is that it will be the first 2025 meeting between the two sides.

FINAL TWO ROUNDS

ROUND 26

BULLDOGS VS PANTHERS (Thursday 7:50pm, Accor Stadiun, Sydney)

STORM VS ROOSTERS (Friday 8pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne)

ROUND 27

BRONCOS VS STORM (Thursday 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane)

SEA EAGLES VS WARRIORS (Friday 6pm, 4 Pines Park, Sydney)

BULLDOGS VS SHARKS (Saturday 7:30pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney)

DOLPHINS VS RAIDERS (Sunday 2pm, Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe)

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